Playoff Picture · Through Week 3· Cutoff Oct 24 · 2025 season
North Group 5
28 public schools. The top 16 eligible teams make the playoffs, seeded into two sections of eight. Here is where the race stands if the season ended today.
16 of 28 get in
The field
0in
13in good shape
15need help
0eliminated
Cut lineLivingston is #16 (42% to make it). Linden is first out (44%).
Top seedsRamapo (3-1, Section A) · Elizabeth (4-0, Section B)
EliminatedNobody yet.
What changedPerth Amboy climbed 6 to No. 10. Westfield fell 6 to No. 21. Into the top 16: Bloomfield, Livingston. Out of it: Linden, JP Stevens. Since Week 2.
If it ended today
First round · higher seed hosts · % = chance to make itSection ANo. 1 overall's side
Ramapo
Livingston
East Orange
Perth Amboy
Irvington
Bayonne
Piscataway
MontclairSection BNo. 2 overall's side
Elizabeth
Passaic
Passaic Tech
Ridgewood
Bridgewater-Raritan
Union
West Orange
BloomfieldFirst round, higher seed hosts. % is the chance to make the playoffs. 2026 seeding snakes the top 16 between the two sections (1, 4, 5, 8… and 2, 3, 6, 7…). Section names come with the NJSIAA alignment lists. The bracket locks after the Oct 24 cutoff.
Games that matter
Week 4No games scheduled.
Games already played show the final score. Win / Lose: each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins or loses this week. Points at stake add up both teams' swings. All Week 4 games →
The race
Chance to make the playoffs · click a chance for whyTap a chance for why| Rank | Team · seed if it ended today | Chance | This week | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near lock 12 Get in 90% of the time or more. | |||||
| 1 | Ramapo 3-1 A1 | at Passaic Tech | 99% | 99% | |
| 2 | Elizabeth 4-0 B1 | at Ridge | 99% | 99% | |
| 3 | West Orange 3-1 B2 | vs East Orange | 99% | 99% | |
| 4 | Piscataway 4-0 A2 | at Old Bridge | 99% | 99% | |
| 5 | Phillipsburg 3-1 Needs 2 NJ wins | at St. Joseph-Metuchen | 99% | 95% | |
| 6 | Irvington 3-1 A3 | at Columbia | 99% | 98% | |
| 7 | Bridgewater-Raritan 3-1 B3 | vs Westfield | 99% | 99% | |
| 8 | Passaic Tech 2-2 B4 | vs Ramapo | 99% | 99% | |
| 9 | East Orange 2-1 A4 | at West Orange | 99% | 96% | |
| 11 | Ridgewood 3-1 B5 | vs Northern Highlands | 99% | 98% | |
| 12 | Union 3-1 B6 | at Hillsborough | 96% | 80% | |
| 13 | Bayonne 3-1 A6 | vs Shabazz | 99% | 95% | |
| In good shape 1 Between 60% and 90%. | |||||
| 10 | Perth Amboy 3-1 A5 | at Metuchen | 97% | 70% | |
| Work to do 5 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line. | |||||
| 15 | Union City 1-3 Needs 2 NJ wins | at Eastside | 61% | 25% | |
| 15 | Bloomfield 2-2 B7 | at Barringer | 57% | 26% | |
| 18 | Livingston 2-2 A8 | at Morristown | 49% | 19% | |
| 19 | Plainfield 1-3 | at Linden | 75% | 34% | |
| 20 | Linden 2-1 | vs Plainfield | 65% | 27% | |
| In trouble 10 Under 30%: need wins and help. | |||||
| 14 | Montclair 2-2 A7Head-to-head ↑ | vs Hackensack | 42% | 10% | |
| 17 | Passaic 2-2 B8 | vs Paramus | 35% | 9% | |
| 21 | Westfield 1-3 | at Bridgewater-Raritan | 72% | 26% | |
| 22 | Morristown 0-4 | vs Livingston | 7% | Under 1% | |
| 22 | Clifton 1-2 | vs Wayne Valley | 11% | Under 1% | |
| 24 | JP Stevens 2-2 | at Brearley | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
| 25 | Barringer 1-2 | vs Bloomfield | 7% | Under 1% | |
| 26 | Franklin 0-4 | vs North Brunswick | 8% | 1% | |
| 27 | Columbia 0-4 | vs Irvington | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
| 28 | Eastside 1-3 | vs Union City | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
Phillipsburg
Union City
Plainfield
Linden
Westfield
Morristown
Clifton
JP Stevens
Barringer
Franklin
Columbia
EastsideNear lock 12 Get in 90% of the time or more.
1Ramapo 3-1 A1at Passaic Tech · Win 99% · Lose 99%
2Elizabeth 4-0 B1at Ridge · Win 99% · Lose 99%
3West Orange 3-1 B2vs East Orange · Win 99% · Lose 99%
4Piscataway 4-0 A2at Old Bridge · Win 99% · Lose 99%
5Phillipsburg 3-1 Needs 2 NJ winsat St. Joseph-Metuchen · Win 99% · Lose 95%
6Irvington 3-1 A3at Columbia · Win 99% · Lose 98%
7Bridgewater-Raritan 3-1 B3vs Westfield · Win 99% · Lose 99%
8Passaic Tech 2-2 B4vs Ramapo · Win 99% · Lose 99%
9East Orange 2-1 A4at West Orange · Win 99% · Lose 96%
11Ridgewood 3-1 B5vs Northern Highlands · Win 99% · Lose 98%
12Union 3-1 B6at Hillsborough · Win 96% · Lose 80%
13Bayonne 3-1 A6vs Shabazz · Win 99% · Lose 95%
In good shape 1 Between 60% and 90%.
10Perth Amboy 3-1 A5at Metuchen · Win 97% · Lose 70%
Work to do 5 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line.
15Union City 1-3 Needs 2 NJ winsat Eastside · Win 61% · Lose 25%
15Bloomfield 2-2 B7at Barringer · Win 57% · Lose 26%
18Livingston 2-2 A8at Morristown · Win 49% · Lose 19%
19Plainfield 1-3 at Linden · Win 75% · Lose 34%
20Linden 2-1 vs Plainfield · Win 65% · Lose 27%
In trouble 10 Under 30%: need wins and help.
14Montclair 2-2 A7Head-to-head ↑vs Hackensack · Win 42% · Lose 10%
17Passaic 2-2 B8vs Paramus · Win 35% · Lose 9%
21Westfield 1-3 at Bridgewater-Raritan · Win 72% · Lose 26%
22Morristown 0-4 vs Livingston · Win 7% · Lose Under 1%
22Clifton 1-2 vs Wayne Valley · Win 11% · Lose Under 1%
24JP Stevens 2-2 at Brearley · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
25Barringer 1-2 vs Bloomfield · Win 7% · Lose Under 1%
26Franklin 0-4 vs North Brunswick · Win 8% · Lose 1%
27Columbia 0-4 vs Irvington · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
28Eastside 1-3 vs Union City · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
More detail: every proof, seeding lock and rooting guide (for coaches)
This week's clinch watch 0 This week's clinch watchTeams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →
This week's clinch watch
Teams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →Nobody clinches with a win alone, or a win plus one other result, this week.
Clinched 0 Clinched a playoff spotNo combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Clinched a playoff spot
No combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →No team has clinched a playoff spot yet.
On the bubble 9 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 12UnionUnion is in the hunt for a playoff spot (91%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 13BayonneBayonne is in the hunt for a playoff spot (96%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 14MontclairMontclair is in the hunt for a playoff spot (17%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 15BloomfieldBloomfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (53%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 15Union CityUnion City is in the hunt for a playoff spot (59%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 17PassaicPassaic is in the hunt for a playoff spot (18%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 18LivingstonLivingston is in the hunt for a playoff spot (42%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 19PlainfieldPlainfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (57%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 20LindenLinden is in the hunt for a playoff spot (44%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
Eliminated 0 Eliminated from the playoffsNo combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Eliminated from the playoffs
No combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →Nobody is out yet.
Still in the hunt 19 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 1RamapoRamapo is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 2ElizabethElizabeth is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 3West OrangeWest Orange is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 4PiscatawayPiscataway is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 5PhillipsburgPhillipsburg is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 6IrvingtonIrvington is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 7Bridgewater-RaritanBridgewater-Raritan is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 8Passaic TechPassaic Tech is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99.3%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 9East OrangeEast Orange is in the hunt for a playoff spot (96%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 10Perth AmboyPerth Amboy is in the hunt for a playoff spot (89%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 11RidgewoodRidgewood is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 21WestfieldWestfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (30%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 22CliftonClifton is in the hunt for a playoff spot (2%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 22MorristownMorristown is in the hunt for a playoff spot (2%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 24JP StevensJP Stevens is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 25BarringerBarringer is in the hunt for a playoff spot (2%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 26FranklinFranklin is in the hunt for a playoff spot (6%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 27ColumbiaColumbia is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 28EastsideEastside is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
Rooting guides 0 This week's rooting guideThe fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →
This week's rooting guide
The fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →No team needs help this week: everything still open is decided by more than one weekend.
How the chances work
We play out the rest of the season 20,000 times with our ratings. Clinched and Out are printed only when they are proven.
How qualifying works →If it ended today
The same seeds as the Standings and every team page, so the three never disagree. A1 means Section A, seed 1.
Full bracket →Checked every week
Our Strength Index is checked against the official NJSIAA list each week.
See the check →