Playoff Picture · Through Week 4· Cutoff Oct 24 · 2025 season
North Group 5
28 public schools. The top 16 eligible teams make the playoffs, seeded into two sections of eight. Here is where the race stands if the season ended today.
16 of 28 get in
The field
0in
16in good shape
12need help
0eliminated
Cut lineBayonne is #16 (91% to make it). Livingston is first out (40%).
Top seedsRamapo (4-1, Section A) · West Orange (4-1, Section B)
EliminatedNobody yet.
What changedPlainfield climbed 6 to No. 13. Montclair fell 4 to No. 18. Into the top 16: Phillipsburg, Plainfield, Union City. Out of it: Montclair, Passaic, Livingston. Since Week 3.
If it ended today
First round · higher seed hosts · % = chance to make itSection ANo. 1 overall's side
Ramapo
Bayonne
Passaic Tech
Union
Piscataway
Perth Amboy
Phillipsburg
PlainfieldSection BNo. 2 overall's side
West Orange
Bloomfield
Irvington
East Orange
Bridgewater-Raritan
Ridgewood
Elizabeth
Union CityFirst round, higher seed hosts. % is the chance to make the playoffs. 2026 seeding snakes the top 16 between the two sections (1, 4, 5, 8… and 2, 3, 6, 7…). Section names come with the NJSIAA alignment lists. The bracket locks after the Oct 24 cutoff.
Games that matter
Week 5No games scheduled.
Games already played show the final score. Win / Lose: each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins or loses this week. Points at stake add up both teams' swings. All Week 5 games →
The race
Chance to make the playoffs · click a chance for whyTap a chance for why| Rank | Team · seed if it ended today | Chance | This week | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near lock 12 Get in 90% of the time or more. | |||||
| 1 | Ramapo 4-1 A1 | vs Northern Highlands | 99% | 99% | |
| 2 | West Orange 4-1 B1 | at Bloomfield | 99% | 99% | |
| 3 | Elizabeth 5-0 B2 | vs Linden | 99% | 99% | |
| 4 | Phillipsburg 4-1 A2 | at Ridge | 99% | 99% | |
| 5 | Piscataway 4-1 A3 | vs Franklin | 99% | 99% | |
| 6 | Bridgewater-Raritan 4-1 B3 | vs Hunterdon Central | 99% | 99% | |
| 7 | Irvington 4-1 B4 | vs Shabazz | 99% | 99% | |
| 8 | Passaic Tech 2-3 A4 | vs Mount Olive | 99% | 99% | |
| 9 | Union 4-1 A5 | vs Plainfield | 99% | 97% | |
| 10 | East Orange 2-2 B5 | vs Livingston | 99% | 92% | |
| 11 | Ridgewood 3-2 B6 | No game this week | – | – | |
| 16 | Bayonne 3-2 A8 | at Morristown | 92% | 70% | |
| In good shape 4 Between 60% and 90%. | |||||
| 12 | Perth Amboy 4-1 A6 | vs New Brunswick | 84% | 55% | |
| 13 | Plainfield 2-3 A7 | at Union | 98% | 75% | |
| 14 | Union City 2-3 B7 | vs Newark Central | 89% | 49% | |
| 15 | Bloomfield 3-2 B8 | vs West Orange | 98% | 68% | |
| Work to do 1 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line. | |||||
| 17 | Livingston 3-2 | at East Orange | 68% | 29% | |
| In trouble 11 Under 30%: need wins and help. | |||||
| 18 | Montclair 2-3 | vs Clifton | 15% | 2% | |
| 19 | Passaic 2-3 | at Hackensack | 17% | 2% | |
| 20 | Linden 2-2 | at Elizabeth | 62% | 13% | |
| 21 | Westfield 1-4 | at Woodbridge | 51% | 14% | |
| 22 | Franklin 1-4 | at Piscataway | 48% | 7% | |
| 23 | JP Stevens 2-3 | vs South Hunterdon | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
| 24 | Morristown 0-5 | vs Bayonne | 8% | Under 1% | |
| 24 | Clifton 1-3 | at Montclair | 2% | Under 1% | |
| 26 | Columbia 0-5 | vs Eastside | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
| 26 | Barringer 1-3 | vs West Side | 1% | Under 1% | |
| 28 | Eastside 1-4 | at Columbia | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
Livingston
Montclair
Passaic
Linden
Westfield
Franklin
JP Stevens
Morristown
Clifton
Columbia
Barringer
EastsideNear lock 12 Get in 90% of the time or more.
1Ramapo 4-1 A1vs Northern Highlands · Win 99% · Lose 99%
2West Orange 4-1 B1at Bloomfield · Win 99% · Lose 99%
3Elizabeth 5-0 B2vs Linden · Win 99% · Lose 99%
4Phillipsburg 4-1 A2at Ridge · Win 99% · Lose 99%
5Piscataway 4-1 A3vs Franklin · Win 99% · Lose 99%
6Bridgewater-Raritan 4-1 B3vs Hunterdon Central · Win 99% · Lose 99%
7Irvington 4-1 B4vs Shabazz · Win 99% · Lose 99%
8Passaic Tech 2-3 A4vs Mount Olive · Win 99% · Lose 99%
9Union 4-1 A5vs Plainfield · Win 99% · Lose 97%
10East Orange 2-2 B5vs Livingston · Win 99% · Lose 92%
11Ridgewood 3-2 B6No game this week
16Bayonne 3-2 A8at Morristown · Win 92% · Lose 70%
In good shape 4 Between 60% and 90%.
12Perth Amboy 4-1 A6vs New Brunswick · Win 84% · Lose 55%
13Plainfield 2-3 A7at Union · Win 98% · Lose 75%
14Union City 2-3 B7vs Newark Central · Win 89% · Lose 49%
15Bloomfield 3-2 B8vs West Orange · Win 98% · Lose 68%
Work to do 1 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line.
17Livingston 3-2 at East Orange · Win 68% · Lose 29%
In trouble 11 Under 30%: need wins and help.
18Montclair 2-3 vs Clifton · Win 15% · Lose 2%
19Passaic 2-3 at Hackensack · Win 17% · Lose 2%
20Linden 2-2 at Elizabeth · Win 62% · Lose 13%
21Westfield 1-4 at Woodbridge · Win 51% · Lose 14%
22Franklin 1-4 at Piscataway · Win 48% · Lose 7%
23JP Stevens 2-3 vs South Hunterdon · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
24Morristown 0-5 vs Bayonne · Win 8% · Lose Under 1%
24Clifton 1-3 at Montclair · Win 2% · Lose Under 1%
26Columbia 0-5 vs Eastside · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
26Barringer 1-3 vs West Side · Win 1% · Lose Under 1%
28Eastside 1-4 at Columbia · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
More detail: every proof, seeding lock and rooting guide (for coaches)
This week's clinch watch 0 This week's clinch watchTeams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →
This week's clinch watch
Teams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →Nobody clinches with a win alone, or a win plus one other result, this week.
Clinched 0 Clinched a playoff spotNo combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Clinched a playoff spot
No combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →No team has clinched a playoff spot yet.
On the bubble 9 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 12Perth AmboyPerth Amboy is in the hunt for a playoff spot (84%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 13PlainfieldPlainfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (84%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 14Union CityUnion City is in the hunt for a playoff spot (67%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 15BloomfieldBloomfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (68%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 16BayonneBayonne is in the hunt for a playoff spot (91%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 17LivingstonLivingston is in the hunt for a playoff spot (40%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 18MontclairMontclair is in the hunt for a playoff spot (10%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 19PassaicPassaic is in the hunt for a playoff spot (5%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 20LindenLinden is in the hunt for a playoff spot (18%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
Eliminated 0 Eliminated from the playoffsNo combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Eliminated from the playoffs
No combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →Nobody is out yet.
Still in the hunt 19 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 1RamapoRamapo is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 2West OrangeWest Orange is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 3ElizabethElizabeth is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 4PhillipsburgPhillipsburg is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 5PiscatawayPiscataway is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 6Bridgewater-RaritanBridgewater-Raritan is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 7IrvingtonIrvington is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 8Passaic TechPassaic Tech is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99.3%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 9UnionUnion is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 10East OrangeEast Orange is in the hunt for a playoff spot (97%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 11RidgewoodRidgewood is in the hunt for a playoff spot (98%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 21WestfieldWestfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (26%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 22FranklinFranklin is in the hunt for a playoff spot (12%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 23JP StevensJP Stevens is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 24CliftonClifton is in the hunt for a playoff spot (1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 24MorristownMorristown is in the hunt for a playoff spot (0.8%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 26BarringerBarringer is in the hunt for a playoff spot (0.3%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 26ColumbiaColumbia is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 28EastsideEastside is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
Rooting guides 0 This week's rooting guideThe fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →
This week's rooting guide
The fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →No team needs help this week: everything still open is decided by more than one weekend.
How the chances work
We play out the rest of the season 20,000 times with our ratings. Clinched and Out are printed only when they are proven.
How qualifying works →If it ended today
The same seeds as the Standings and every team page, so the three never disagree. A1 means Section A, seed 1.
Full bracket →Checked every week
Our Strength Index is checked against the official NJSIAA list each week.
See the check →