Playoff Picture · Through Week 6· Cutoff Oct 24 · 2025 season
North Group 5
28 public schools. The top 16 eligible teams make the playoffs, seeded into two sections of eight. Here is where the race stands if the season ended today.
16 of 28 get in
The field
0in
15in good shape
13need help
0eliminated
Cut lineLinden is #16 (42% to make it). Bloomfield is first out (50%).
Top seedsRamapo (4-2, Section A) · West Orange (5-1, Section B)
EliminatedNobody yet.
What changedIrvington climbed 4 to No. 5. Phillipsburg fell 4 to No. 9. Into the top 16: Linden. Out of it: Bloomfield. Since Week 5.
If it ended today
First round · higher seed hosts · % = chance to make itSection ANo. 1 overall's side
Ramapo
Linden
East Orange
Phillipsburg
Irvington
Union City
Piscataway
BayonneSection BNo. 2 overall's side
West Orange
Plainfield
Bridgewater-Raritan
Union
Passaic Tech
Perth Amboy
Elizabeth
RidgewoodFirst round, higher seed hosts. % is the chance to make the playoffs. 2026 seeding snakes the top 16 between the two sections (1, 4, 5, 8… and 2, 3, 6, 7…). Section names come with the NJSIAA alignment lists. The bracket locks after the Oct 24 cutoff.
Games that matter
Week 7No games scheduled.
Games already played show the final score. Win / Lose: each team's chance to make the playoffs if it wins or loses this week. Points at stake add up both teams' swings. All Week 7 games →
The race
Chance to make the playoffs · click a chance for whyTap a chance for why| Rank | Team · seed if it ended today | Chance | This week | If they win | If they lose |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Near lock 14 Get in 90% of the time or more. | |||||
| 1 | Ramapo 4-2 A1Head-to-head ↑ | vs Wayne Hills | 99% | 99% | |
| 2 | West Orange 5-1 B1 | at Barringer | 99% | 99% | |
| 3 | Elizabeth 7-0 B2 | at Westfield | 99% | 99% | |
| 4 | Piscataway 6-1 A2 | at Monroe | 99% | 99% | |
| 5 | Irvington 5-2 A3Head-to-head ↑ | at East Orange | 99% | 99% | |
| 6 | Passaic Tech 4-3 B3 | at Livingston | 99% | 99% | |
| 7 | Bridgewater-Raritan 6-1 B4 | at Phillipsburg | 99% | 99% | |
| 8 | East Orange 4-2 A4 | vs Irvington | 99% | 99% | |
| 9 | Phillipsburg 4-2 A5 | vs Bridgewater-Raritan | 99% | 99% | |
| 10 | Union 5-2 B5 | at St. Joseph-Metuchen | 99% | 99% | |
| 11 | Perth Amboy 6-1 B6 | vs Johnson | 99% | 99% | |
| 12 | Union City 3-4 A6 | at Columbia | 99% | 79% | |
| 13 | Bayonne 4-3 A7 | vs Bloomfield | 99% | 68% | |
| 14 | Ridgewood 3-3 B7 | at Clifton | 99% | 78% | |
| In good shape 1 Between 60% and 90%. | |||||
| 15 | Plainfield 2-5 B8 | vs Watchung Hills | 78% | 29% | |
| Work to do 2 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line. | |||||
| 16 | Linden 3-3 A8 | at Woodbridge | 73% | 19% | |
| 17 | Bloomfield 3-4 | at Bayonne | 90% | 43% | |
| In trouble 9 Under 30%: need wins and help. | |||||
| 18 | Livingston 4-3 | vs Passaic Tech | 76% | 28% | |
| 19 | Passaic 3-4 | vs Wayne Valley | 19% | 2% | |
| 20 | Franklin 2-5 | at South Brunswick | 19% | Under 1% | |
| 21 | Clifton 3-3 | vs Ridgewood | 31% | Under 1% | |
| 22 | Westfield 1-6 | vs Elizabeth | 47% | Under 1% | |
| 23 | Montclair 2-5 | at Nutley | 4% | Under 1% | |
| 24 | Morristown 0-7 | vs Montville | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
| 25 | Columbia 1-6 | vs Union City | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
| 28 | Barringer 1-5 | vs West Orange | Under 1% | Under 1% | |
| Out 2 Can no longer make it, or all but. | |||||
Bloomfield
Livingston
Passaic
Franklin
Clifton
Westfield
Montclair
Morristown
Columbia
BarringerNear lock 14 Get in 90% of the time or more.
1Ramapo 4-2 A1Head-to-head ↑vs Wayne Hills · Win 99% · Lose 99%
2West Orange 5-1 B1at Barringer · Win 99% · Lose 99%
3Elizabeth 7-0 B2at Westfield · Win 99% · Lose 99%
4Piscataway 6-1 A2at Monroe · Win 99% · Lose 99%
5Irvington 5-2 A3Head-to-head ↑at East Orange · Win 99% · Lose 99%
6Passaic Tech 4-3 B3at Livingston · Win 99% · Lose 99%
7Bridgewater-Raritan 6-1 B4at Phillipsburg · Win 99% · Lose 99%
8East Orange 4-2 A4vs Irvington · Win 99% · Lose 99%
9Phillipsburg 4-2 A5vs Bridgewater-Raritan · Win 99% · Lose 99%
10Union 5-2 B5at St. Joseph-Metuchen · Win 99% · Lose 99%
11Perth Amboy 6-1 B6vs Johnson · Win 99% · Lose 99%
12Union City 3-4 A6at Columbia · Win 99% · Lose 79%
13Bayonne 4-3 A7vs Bloomfield · Win 99% · Lose 68%
14Ridgewood 3-3 B7at Clifton · Win 99% · Lose 78%
In good shape 1 Between 60% and 90%.
15Plainfield 2-5 B8vs Watchung Hills · Win 78% · Lose 29%
Work to do 2 Between 30% and 60%: the cut line.
16Linden 3-3 A8at Woodbridge · Win 73% · Lose 19%
17Bloomfield 3-4 at Bayonne · Win 90% · Lose 43%
In trouble 9 Under 30%: need wins and help.
18Livingston 4-3 vs Passaic Tech · Win 76% · Lose 28%
19Passaic 3-4 vs Wayne Valley · Win 19% · Lose 2%
20Franklin 2-5 at South Brunswick · Win 19% · Lose Under 1%
21Clifton 3-3 vs Ridgewood · Win 31% · Lose Under 1%
22Westfield 1-6 vs Elizabeth · Win 47% · Lose Under 1%
23Montclair 2-5 at Nutley · Win 4% · Lose Under 1%
24Morristown 0-7 vs Montville · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
25Columbia 1-6 vs Union City · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
28Barringer 1-5 vs West Orange · Win Under 1% · Lose Under 1%
Out 2 Can no longer make it, or all but.
More detail: every proof, seeding lock and rooting guide (for coaches)
This week's clinch watch 0 This week's clinch watchTeams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →
This week's clinch watch
Teams that clinch a playoff spot with a win this week, or with a win plus one other result. Found by fixing the win and searching this week's other games for the smallest set that proves the spot.Show the work →Nobody clinches with a win alone, or a win plus one other result, this week.
Clinched 8 Clinched a playoff spotNo combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Clinched a playoff spot
No combination of the remaining results can leave the team outside the top 16. "Clinched" is printed only when that is proved; "virtually clinched" means every simulated season and a search for a counterexample agree, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →- 1Ramapo since Wk 5Ramapo has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 2West Orange since Wk 5West Orange has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 3Elizabeth since Wk 5Elizabeth has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 4PiscatawayPiscataway has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 5IrvingtonIrvington has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 6Passaic TechPassaic Tech has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 7Bridgewater-RaritanBridgewater-Raritan has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
- 8East OrangeEast Orange has virtually clinched a playoff spot (>99.9%). 20,000 of 20,000 simulated seasons keep them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does not; not yet proved.
On the bubble 9 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 12Union CityUnion City is in the hunt for a playoff spot (99%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 13BayonneBayonne is in the hunt for a playoff spot (95%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 14RidgewoodRidgewood is in the hunt for a playoff spot (97%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 15PlainfieldPlainfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (69%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 16LindenLinden is in the hunt for a playoff spot (42%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 17BloomfieldBloomfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (50%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 18LivingstonLivingston is in the hunt for a playoff spot (29%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 19PassaicPassaic is in the hunt for a playoff spot (7%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 20FranklinFranklin is in the hunt for a playoff spot (6%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
Eliminated 2 Eliminated from the playoffsNo combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →
Eliminated from the playoffs
No combination of the remaining results can put the team in the top 16, or it cannot reach two wins against NJSIAA members. "Virtually eliminated" means no simulated season and no search found a way in, but it is not yet proved.Show the work →- 26JP Stevens since Wk 5JP Stevens is virtually eliminated from a playoff spot (<0.1%). 0 of 20,000 simulated seasons get them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does; not yet proved.
- 27EastsideEastside is virtually eliminated from a playoff spot (<0.1%). 0 of 20,000 simulated seasons get them there and a 500-try search found no scenario that does; not yet proved.
JP Stevens
EastsideStill in the hunt 9 Chance of a playoff spotShare of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →
Chance of a playoff spot
Share of 20,000 simulated finishes to the season in which the team lands in the top 16. Each remaining game is drawn from the Strength Index line, so this is an estimate, never a proof.Show the work →- 9PhillipsburgPhillipsburg is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 10UnionUnion is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 11Perth AmboyPerth Amboy is in the hunt for a playoff spot (>99.9%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 21CliftonClifton is in the hunt for a playoff spot (3%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 22WestfieldWestfield is in the hunt for a playoff spot (3%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 23MontclairMontclair is in the hunt for a playoff spot (1%). Can finish anywhere from 1st to 28th.
- 24MorristownMorristown is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 25ColumbiaColumbia is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
- 28BarringerBarringer is in the hunt for a playoff spot (<0.1%). Could still finish as high as 1st, or ineligible with fewer than two wins vs NJSIAA members.
Rooting guides 6 This week's rooting guideThe fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →
This week's rooting guide
The fewest results this week that, with the team's own result, prove the target. Found by fixing the team's win (or any result), adding this week's other games one at a time by how much each lifts the team's worst-case rank until the target is proved, then dropping any game the proof no longer needs. Every listed result must happen; other routes may exist.Show the work →- 1Ramapo
Ramapo needs help from 6+ results to clinch a playoff spot this week (chance of getting there: >99.9%).
- 24MorristownElimination watchIf Morristown loses to Montville
A loss alone puts them out.
Strength Index can still move this week; the proof assumes no 42-point-plus margin (virtually a lock, not proved).
- 24MorristownElimination watchIf Morristown loses to Montville
A loss alone puts them out.
Strength Index can still move this week; the proof assumes no 42-point-plus margin (virtually a lock, not proved).
- 24MorristownElimination watchIf Morristown loses to Montville
A loss alone puts them out.
Strength Index can still move this week; the proof assumes no 42-point-plus margin (virtually a lock, not proved).
- 25ColumbiaElimination watchIf Columbia loses to Union City
Strength Index can still move this week; the proof assumes no 42-point-plus margin (virtually a lock, not proved).
- 26JP StevensElimination watchIf JP Stevens loses to South River
- Bound Brook beats Middlesex (Fri, Oct 16)
- Clifton beats Ridgewood (Fri, Oct 16)
Strength Index can still move this week; the proof assumes no 42-point-plus margin (virtually a lock, not proved).
- 26JP StevensElimination watchIf JP Stevens loses to South River
A loss alone puts them out.
Strength Index can still move this week; the proof assumes no 42-point-plus margin (virtually a lock, not proved).
- 27EastsideElimination watchIf Eastside loses to Hackensack
A loss alone puts them out.
Strength Index can still move this week; the proof assumes no 42-point-plus margin (virtually a lock, not proved).
- 28BarringerElimination watchIf Barringer loses to West Orange
- Livingston beats Passaic Tech (Fri, Oct 16)
- Clifton beats Ridgewood (Fri, Oct 16)
Strength Index can still move this week; the proof assumes no 42-point-plus margin (virtually a lock, not proved).
How the chances work
We play out the rest of the season 20,000 times with our ratings. Clinched and Out are printed only when they are proven.
How qualifying works →If it ended today
The same seeds as the Standings and every team page, so the three never disagree. A1 means Section A, seed 1.
Full bracket →Checked every week
Our Strength Index is checked against the official NJSIAA list each week.
See the check →