South Group 4 · Public

Colts Neck Cougars

4-43-1 in the D North · Coach Matt Ahearn

Playoff statusChecked Tue 7:40 PM

Long shot

16% to make it

Win: 92%. Loss: under 1%.

Waiting on: vs Monmouth, Sat 11:00 AM.
Seed: After Saturday: No. 8 at best, or out.
Can pass us: Saturday: 6 teams. See who ↓

Last game

Final · Friday, Oct 16vs Freehold BoroW49–7Full breakdown →

Next game

Next · Saturday, Oct 24 · 11:00 AM · Homevs Monmouth8-0The lineMonmouth by 13Playoff oddsWin 92% · lose under 1%Game preview →

If the season ended todayOutNo. 17 of 27 in South Group 4.Playoff spot16%Home gameOutNo. 1 seedOut

If Colts Neck wins outAlmost certainlyBeat Monmouth and Colts Neck makes it 93% of the time. One win alone doesn't lock it.Colts Neck also needs these teams to lose

HamiltonNo. 16 · 4-3Plays Notre Dame on Saturday, Oct 24+45
PrincetonNo. 17 · 3-5Plays at Hopewell Valley on Friday, Oct 23+40
Cedar CreekNo. 20 · 1-7Plays Holy Spirit on Friday, Oct 23+17

93% if they win outOdds as of Tuesday, Oct 20, 7:40 PM. +45 means a Hamilton loss adds 45 points to Colts Neck's chance.

Before the cutoff · Saturday, Oct 24

Who can still pass Colts Neck?

Best caseNo. 8 seedWorst caseOut

Cedar Creek1-7 · 20th todayOnly if they beat Holy Spirit and other results go their way.
Cherry Hill West2-6 · 22nd todayCan pass us if they beat Camden Eastside and other results go their way. With a loss, only if we lose to Monmouth and other results go their way.
Long Branch2-6 · 23rd todayOnly if they beat Barnegat, we lose to Monmouth and other results go their way.
Central1-7 · 21st todayOnly if they beat Toms River East, we lose to Monmouth and other results go their way.
Toms River East1-7 · 26th todayOnly if they beat Central, we lose to Monmouth and other results go their way.
Hightstown1-7 · 24th todayOnly if they beat Allentown, we lose to Monmouth, Bridgeton beats Cumberland, Toms River East beats Central, Camden Eastside beats Cherry Hill West and other results go their way.

Can’t pass Colts Neck: everyone else in South Group 4, whatever happens Saturday. Checked against every way Saturday’s games can go, and updated as each final comes in.

Schedule and results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result	The line
0	Aug 27	at Marlboro	L7–28
1	Sep 5	vs Ocean Twp.	L20–36
2	Sep 10	vs Long Branch	W32–0
3	Sep 18	at Asbury Park	W36–6
4	Sep 25	vs Barnegat	L0–16
5	Oct 2	at Toms River South	L6–34
6	Oct 9	at Manchester Twp.	W35–0
7	Oct 16	vs Freehold Boro	W49–7
Still to play · lines as of today
8	Oct 24	vs Monmouth	Sat 11:00 AM	Monmouth by 13

The line is who we favored before kickoff, and by how much.

Wvs Freehold BoroOct 16 · 49–7 ›

Wat Manchester Twp.Oct 9 · 35–0 ›

Lat Toms River SouthOct 2 · 6–34 ›

Lvs BarnegatSep 25 · 0–16 ›

Wat Asbury ParkSep 18 · 36–6 ›

Wvs Long BranchSep 10 · 32–0 ›

Lvs Ocean Twp.Sep 5 · 20–36 ›

Lat MarlboroAug 27 · 7–28 ›

Still to play

vs MonmouthMonmouth by 13Sat 11:00 AM

Lines are today's Strength Index gap and move every week.

The numbers

How the ratings work →

How close we are±0.5Our opponent strength vs the official NJSIAA listWhy? →

Strength Index after each week

Started the season at 51.61 · locks after Week 7

After	SI	Δ
Season start	51.61
Week 0	47.57	down −4.04
Week 1	46.03	down −1.54
Week 2	52.99	up +6.96
Week 3	56.61	up +3.62
Week 4	56.22	down −0.39
Week 5	51.01	down −5.21
Week 6	54.55	up +3.54
Week 7	58.71	up +4.16

What if?

Pick the result against Monmouth. The seed has every other game going to the favorite; the rest holds other teams where they are.

If Colts Neck wins by 10NowThenChange

Seed, favorites win elsewhereOutNo. 8in

Strength Index58.7158.71locked

Power points8.2510.00+1.75

Opponent strength rank21st18thup 3

Power rank (UPR)18.215.6better